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I have ordered ten of the LEGO Super Mario character packs from the LEGO store online.

I would expect that the models in these packs to be distributed randomly, i.e. each pack has a 1-in-10 chance to include each of the ten models. However, having opened eight of the ten packs, I have received eight distinct models (I am only missing the bullet-bill and the Fuzzy).

The chances of this happening by random chance are small - I'm not 100% sure on the mathematics, but I think its about 1,8%.

Does anyone know if the (online) LEGO store systematically tries to make sure customers do not get repeats in random packs?

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    I don't have any official sources, but most probably while they can't (and thus won't) ensure it, they still strive to provide different packs. Or they might just grab the next X packs from the box, which have a known distribution and so could very well be different ones.
    – zovits
    Sep 15, 2020 at 8:25
  • @zovits - Thanks for your thoughts. I hadn't considered that it could be so simple as grabbing the next X packs. I'm trying to limit myself to opening only one pack a day, so I will keep my fingers crossed I was just very lucky!
    – Neil Tarrant
    Sep 15, 2020 at 8:43
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    And FWIW, the packs come in a box of 20, with 2 rows, and each row contains a full set of 10. So if you purchased 10 in one order, chances are high that the order picker just grabbed an entire row, meaning you have a full set.
    – Phil B.
    Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44
  • I ordered in two sets of five, so fingers crossed!🤞🏻
    – Neil Tarrant
    Sep 15, 2020 at 10:58
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    @MichaelVerschaeve - the probability quoted is for 8 from 8 being unique - at the time of writing the question I had only opened 8 packs.
    – Neil Tarrant
    Sep 17, 2020 at 10:15

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I think I can answer this question myself now.

I have ordered twice, ordering five character packs in each. Across each of the sets of five, all of the characters I received were unique. However, there were two models in common between the two sets of five.

As zovits and Phil B. suggested in comments, it looks like employees will simply grab the next packs you have ordered form the box. Inside the box the packs seem to be ordered, so it is very likely that you'll end up getting unique models, but not assured.

If you would like all ten models, and can afford it, order ten packs at once.

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