How do I know when current sets will retire?

Question

As the title asks, how is the easiest way to find when current sets on the Lego website will be retired and no longer sold.

For example, the 10197 Fire Brigade has been around since 2009, same as 10193 but both are still selling. While Ninjago is currently changing and set 2258 suddenly is no longer for sale in the Lego Store at Disneyland and not available online. Yet that series only came out this year.

So how can I find out when sets are retiring.

(side question: why does lego.com drop items off my wish list without notifying me)

Answer 1

The LEGO Shop online website has a page where you can see which sets are marked as 'Retiring Soon'.

USA - LEGO Shop

UK - LEGO Shop

Answer 2

I'll take a stab at starting to answer this one, but I'm pretty sure it's going to need some refinement as it goes along since the answer does not appear to be quite consistent across all themes.

In general you can assume that a particular set will only be available for one year after it has been introduced.

The exceptions to that general rule seem to be:

• Basic brick sets seem to stay mostly the same from year to year, though occasionally there is a tweak to the price or part assortment for whatever internal reason.

• Sets over US$100 appear to stay in production for around two years.

You can find out when a set went into production by checking Peeron, Bricklink, BrickSet, or any number of similar fan databases.